The 2 hour marathon debate

The stunning run in the mens Boston Marathon this year by Geoffrey Mutai has again opened the discussion about a potential sub 2 hour marathon.

Experts have for a long time been divided on this matter and there are some that say it will just not happen at all. Current world record holder (albeit on a technicality) Haile Gebrselassie believes that it will be done, but not by him and only in about 25 years time or more.

To give you an idea of what one needs to do to get to the 2 hour marathon, it would need solid speeds of 13.1 miles per hour, whereas the current world record sits at 12.7 miles per hour. This is a significant jump and would take a very special talent to get there. Quite simply the combination on the day would just have to click and go so well.

As to possible courses for an attempt, the simple answer to this would be that they would have to be either London, Berlin or Rotterdam as these are the fastest traditionally (as we saw on the weekend Boston was great for a record but it does not count).
One would also have to assemble a top quality field of pace makers and throw a significant amount of money at them (not to mention the eventual winner) to bust themselves in the attempt to get someone under 2 hours. It is clear that anyone going under that magic 2 hour marker would not only write themself into the history books, but also have the potential to earn and incredible amount of money.

Who could do it one may ask? My money is definitely on someone from East Africa, with a slim possibility of perhaps someone from North or South Africa. The rest of the world just does not have the pedigree or the track record.

With the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa being 2500m above sea level and with a good climate, it bodes well for those training in that atmosphere.

A young Ethiopian with a very quick 5000m track time is my guess for the person to crack it.

Running together – stride for stride on a life changing ride! – Sean Muller